Business Case

The supercritical reactor refit technology can increase both the asset value and the potential lifespan of Ontario nuclear generating stations. Increased electricity generation will more than double electricity revenues while limiting increases in operating costs to several percent.

The investment required is substantial, but not disproportionate to the current investment in plant refurbishment. While there is currently insufficient information to compile a detailed cost estimate, the operations and equipment involved are sufficiently similar to refurbishment to forecast that refit costs are currently expected to be no more than 50% greater than refurbishment. The per unit refurbishment costs of a Darlington and Pickering B unit in 2025 dollars are respectively $4.3 billion and $6.7 billion. While they have a higher generating capacity, the Darlington units are much newer and easier to refurbish. A typical power upgrade refit is estimated to be 50% higher than the mean of these values, i.e. $8.25 billion per unit or $33 billion to refit a four-unit station.

The post-refit operational life of each unit is assumed to be 30 years, consistent with past experience for CANDU / PHWR reactors. The revenue over this period is estimated using $102 per MWh in 2025 dollars with an average nuclear power plant capacity factor of 80%. The annual revenue for a refitted 4-unit station with a current output of 880 MW would be $5 billion. The per unit operating costs are estimated from OPG’s $2.8 billion dollar operating administrative and maintenance expenses for 2025 distributed across 10 operating nuclear units (ignoring the contribution from hydro, gas and other generation). The resulting operating cost for a four-unit nuclear generating station is estimated at $1.1 billion per year in 2025 dollars.

The return on investment after 30 years would be $83 billion, or 250%.

Link to: Refit brochure.pdf

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